A Look Back at November’s Market and Economic Trends

November appeared steady at first glance, but the month carried more complexity beneath the surface. U.S. markets hovered near record levels through much of the period before momentum eased as AI-related optimism met earnings results, Federal Reserve communication reshaped expectations, and the government shutdown limited the flow of economic data.

Shifts in Major U.S. Stock Indices

Market performance reflected changing expectations around rate cuts alongside notable rotations in AI and mega‑cap technology. Hopes for easier Fed policy helped lift stocks late in the month, though profit‑taking in stretched tech names moderated gains. The S&P 500 edged up 0.13%, the Nasdaq 100 declined 1.64%, and the Dow gained 0.32%.

Policy Signals Amid Data Disruptions

With October’s CPI missing entirely and payroll data pushed into December due to the shutdown, investors and policymakers operated with limited visibility. Fed officials filled the gap through their remarks: some noting that the October rate cut brought policy closer to neutral, others signaling support for another cut. Meanwhile, FOMC minutes revealed a central bank divided, with several members preferring to hold rates unless growth meaningfully weakens.

Labor and Inflation Dynamics

The absence of the October household survey left markets without an unemployment reading heading into December. A combined October–November payroll report arriving mid‑month now carries additional weight for the upcoming FOMC meeting. On inflation, Fed officials highlighted crosscurrents—from productivity gains linked to AI investment to pressures tied to tariff and immigration shifts. Comments from Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester emphasized concern as inflation edged higher and policy became slightly less restrictive.

Housing Market Developments

Existing‑home sales held at a 4.1 million annual pace in October, with prices up modestly year over year. Inventory remained tight, and national prices showed slight year‑over‑year gains before flattening in September. Regional differences were pronounced, with strength in some Northeastern states offsetting declines in parts of Florida and Washington, D.C. Rising delistings and record price cuts pointed to seller concessions, while forecasts suggest gradual recovery into 2026.

Demographic shifts continue to reshape the market: the typical buyer is now 59 years old, while first‑time buyers average 40. Elevated prices, mortgage rates, and limited supply continue to weigh on younger households.

Looking Ahead

November’s mix of incomplete data, shifting policy views, and sector‑level rotations offers several guideposts for year‑end. The Federal Reserve remains on an easing path, though divided views make firm expectations difficult. AI and mega‑cap tech companies continue to influence overall market tone, but recent volatility highlights the importance of selectivity. The Fed’s December 10 decision and upcoming AI updates will serve as important markers as the year concludes.

In periods like this, maintaining diversification, managing risk carefully, and keeping a long‑term focus remain key. For personalized guidance based on your financial goals, we encourage you to reach out to our financial team anytime.